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12/5/2007 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 5th. May.

Rosehill: Track Dead

R5 $80,000 3YO and upward. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: On The Up
Result: second
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.90
Jockey: Rod Quinn
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Danebar
Starting price: $17.00
Top fluctuation: $17.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.90
Jockey: Danny Beasley
Trainer: Terry Robinson

Moonee Valley: Track Dead

R2 $50,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Amberino
Result: first

Starting price: $2.35
Top fluctuation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: John Moloney

R4 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Savlate
Result: sixth
Starting price: $1.95
Top fluctuation: $2.00
Jockey: William Hernan
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Purple Chocolate
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.50
Jockey: Sebastian Murphy
Trainer: David Hayes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Win betting tote firmers
Worst horse racing bet of the year?
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/5/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Moonee Valley
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 5/5/2007
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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