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12/12/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 28th. November, 2009.

Moonee Valley: Track Good

R1 $70,000 2YO. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Johnnydrama
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $3.50
Jockey: Mark Pegus
Trainer: Leon Corstens
Winner: Star Witness
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R2 $70,000 3YO. Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Doubtful Jack
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Tio Rossa
Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctuation: $8.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.10
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Colin & Cindy Alderson


Morphettville: Track Dead

R1 $26,500 3YO. 2MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Storm Brewing
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Craig Curtis

R2 $26,500 3YO Fillies. 1MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: I'm Discreet
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.35
Top fluctuation: $1.35
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Richard Jolly

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing handicapping betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The High Strike Rate Win Big horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 5/12/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 28/11/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 21/11/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/12/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 28/11/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 21/11/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 21/11/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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