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12/12/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the Moonee Valley horse racing meeting held on Saturday, 28th. November, 2009.

Moonee Valley
Track: Good
Rail: True position
Penetrometer: 4.69

R1 $70,000 2YO. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Johnny Drama
Days since last start: First start (no public trial form.)
Distance last start: ---
Result last start: ---
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Mark Pegus
Trainer: Leon Corstens

R2 $70,000 3YO. Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Doubtful Jack
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 5-8
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R3 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Dubleanny
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1170
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price

R4 $70,000 3YO & up. Fillies & Mares. Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Miss Lily Rose
Days since last start: 25
Distance last start: 1700
Result last start: 4-15
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.45
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R5 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Lucky Thunder
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 14th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nathan Rose
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R6 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Posadas
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1300
Result last start: 2-7
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R7 $70,000 3YO & up. Fillies & Mares. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Amberino
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 3-16
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: John Moloney

R8 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Red Hustler
Days since last start: 8
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 2-9
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Nikki Burke

Comments:
A tough day for favourites with just one winner. In R2 the favourite, Doubtful Jack, was unplaced at its previous start. It was unplaced again. While in R4 Miss Lily Rose was unplaced at its previous start, had 25 days between races and rose in distance from 1700 metres to 2040 metres. Under those circumstances it was a great run to finish second.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing handicapping betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The High Strike Rate Win Big horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 5/12/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 28/11/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 21/11/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/12/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 28/11/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 21/11/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 21/11/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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