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12/12/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the Sandown horse racing meeting held on Saturday, 21st. November, 2009 at the Sandown Hillside horse racing track.

Sandown Hillside
Track: R1-3 Dead, R4-8 Good.
Rail: Out 5 metres.
Penetrometer: 5.33

R1 $70,000 3YO. Rating 72. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Tonzaticka
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R2 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Rating 72. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Varenna Miss
Days since last start: (First race start; no barrier trial details.)
Distance last start: ---
Result last start: ---
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Michael Carson
Trainer: Tony Noonan

R3 $70,000 3YO and up. Fillies & Mares. Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: North East Smile
Days since last start: 24
Distance last start: 1300
Result last start: 5-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R4 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Sound Journey
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-14
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R5 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Happy Glen
Days since last start: 16
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 3-13
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths

R6 $125,000 Eclipse Stakes.
Quality. Group 3. Handicap.

Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Rose Syrah
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 2-16
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Tony Noonan

R7 $70,000 3YO and up. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 11
Equal Favourite: Viking Turf Belle
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 4-16
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainer: Jason Warren
Equal Favourite: Ariarni
Days since last start: 22
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R8 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Iamzeus
Days since last start: 203
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 11-12
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

Comments:
In R3 North East Smile won despite jumping up in distance from 1300 metres to 1600 metres, being unplaced at its last start, and having 24 days between races. However in R6 Rose Syrah jumped up in distance from 1500 metres to 1800 metres and did not win. In R7 the equal favourite Viking Turf Belle dropped back in distance from 1500 metres to 1300 metres and was unplaced. In R8 Iamzeus was first up after a spell of 203 days and did not win.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing handicapping betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The High Strike Rate Win Big horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 5/12/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 28/11/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 21/11/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/12/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 28/11/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 21/11/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 21/11/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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