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21/11/2009 edition

Betting On Pace Horses or Run On Horses?

"Behind the place getters the eye-catching run came from Shogun Lodge, who overcame the slow early pace to flash home for fifth just two and a half lengths from the winner." Ray Hickson, Sunday Herald Sun, September 24, 2000. Horses that run on and make up good ground catch our attention. But are they the best betting conveyances?

Look at horses in recent years that have dominated racing such as Might And Power and Sunline. Look at the most consistent horses. They all usually have one thing in common. They either lead or settle on the pace.

A very successful punter we know called Tony nearly always backs horses that lead or settle on the pace. He rarely backs a horse that has to come from behind the field. Once when we were having a talk he said, "Why is there all this fascination with losing horses finishing fast from the tail of the field? I'll tell you why. Because you don't need any special knowledge to spot a horse running on from last. What is wrong with a horse that leads or settles on the pace and goes down by about a length? You need a good knowledge of horse racing to assess the merits of that run. Yet the usual view is that it was given every chance and wasn't good enough to win. But if that horse that finished fast from last and got beaten by the same length or so everyone would have noticed its "eye catching run." Now in my view that's absolutely crazy.

Of course horses tailing the field by 10 lengths at the 400 have to run fast final sectionals. If they don't they'll be beaten by 10 lengths. But they have also not worked earlier.

So this suits me just fine.

Racing is about information, knowledge and opinion. As long as the racing media are happy to push them and punters out there are happy to take short prices about run on horses and get impressed by those same horses running on from last because they catch the eye I'll keep geting good odds about my horses to beat them. Let the media keep highlighting those horses running on from last to the punting public. I love it."

It was no surprise to find that Tony had a decent wager on Adam which led throughout and won at $13.00. But, according to Ray Hickson, it was Shogun Lodge that caught the eye in that race, flashing home for fifth, a beaten $3.20 favourite.

There is a lot of sense to Tony's views.

The horses that regularly have bad luck are your run on horses.
The horses that regularly have excuses made about why it was impossible to win because of the slow pace of the race are your run on horses.
The horses that regularly get affected by track bias, as most track bias results in tracks favouring leaders, are your run on horses.

Based on Punt to Win, 29/9/2000.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting on pace or run on horses?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Winning Jockey horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 14/11/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 7/11/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 31/10/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/11/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/11/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/10/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 31/10/2009
Punt to Win index


2009 Melbourne Cup Day
Winners
Best Bookmaker Win Odds
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Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Strawberry Field 21.00 32.60 $116
Right Fong 13.70 17.00 $33
Majestic Music 9.80 13.00 $32
Common Interest 9.20 12.00 $28
She's Got Gears 10.00 12.60 $26
Flying Tessie 11.00 13.40 $24
Shocking 9.80 11.00 $12


 

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