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21/11/2009
edition
Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites
Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?
These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on
a regular basis.
We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.
Here are the results from Flemington, Saturday, 7th. November, 2009, the last day of the four meetings of the Flemington Melbourne Cup Carnival.
Flemington
Track: Dead
Rail: Out 8 metres
Penetrometer: 4.83
R1 $150,000 Maribyrnong Plate.
2YO. Group 3. Set weights.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Stirling Grove
Days since last start: 35
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: Scratched at the barrier.
Starting price: ---
Top fluctuation: ---
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Richard Jolly
R2 $100,000 Phar Lap Club Plate. 4YO and upwards. Rating 95. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Lucky Thunder
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 6-11
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
R3 $100,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Equal Favourite: Raffaello
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 5-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
Equal Favourite: Timetable
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 1-15
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedma
R4 $150,000
3YO. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Governance
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-7
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.25
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden
R5 $500,000 Group 1 . Weight for Age.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: All Silent
Days since last start: 35
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-15
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Grahame Begg
R6 $1,000,000 Group 1. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: So You Think
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2040
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Bart Cummings
R7 $300,000 Matriarch Stakes.
Group 2. Mares. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Purple
Days since last start: 24
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 2-15
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden
R8 $250,000 Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
Group 3. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Hume
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 2500
Result last start: 2-15
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Stathi Katsidis
Trainer: Brian Smith
R9 $100,000 4YO and upwards. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Barwon Express
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
Comments:
In R2, the favourite Lucky Thunder did not win. It ran unplaced at its previous start. However in R3 Raffaello started as equal $4.00 favourite and won after being unplaced at its previous start. The Cox Plate winner, So You Think dropped back in distance from 2040 metres to 1600 metres in R6 and ran second. All Silent won R5 over 1200 metres after a freshen up of 35 days.
This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting on pace or run on horses?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Winning Jockey horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 14/11/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 7/11/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 31/10/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/11/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/11/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/10/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 31/10/2009
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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