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21/11/2009
edition
Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites
Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?
These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on
a regular basis.
We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.
Here are the results from Flemington, Saturday, 31st. October, 2009 when the $1.5 million 3YO Group 1 Victoria Derby and the $750,000 Group 1 Weight for Age Mackinnon Stakes, a traditional lead up race for Tuesday's Melbourne Cup, were run at Flemington horse racing track.
Flemington
Track: R1-4 Dead, R5-9 Good.
Rail: True Position
Penetrometer: 4.89
R1 $250,000 Carbine Club Stakes
3YO. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: The Comedian
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1403
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman
R2 $250,000 Quality. Group 3. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Shocking
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 2-16
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
R3 $300,000 Wakeful Stakes.
3YO Fillies. Group 2. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Run For Naara
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: John P. Thompson
R4 $500,000 Coolmore Stud Stakes.
3YO. Group 1. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Demerit
Days since last start: 42
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden
R5 $750,000 Mackinnon Stakes.
Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Rangirangdoo
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Chris Waller
R6 $1,500,000 Victoria Derby.
3YO.
Group 1. Set weights.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Rockferry
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 2206
Result last start: 3-14
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
R7 $500,000 Fillies & Mares. Group 1.
Weight for Age.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Typhoon Tracy
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
R8 $300,000 Salinger Stakes.
Group 2. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: First Command
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman
R9 $250,000 Group 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: McClintock
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Mark de Montfor
Comments:
The winning favourites, in R2, Shocking, and R7, Typhoon Tracy, finished second and first in the previous races, which were 14 days earlier. In R4 the favourite, Demerit, dropped back in distance from 1400 metres to 1200 metres after a frreshen up of 42 days and finished sixth.
This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting on pace or run on horses?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Winning Jockey horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 14/11/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 7/11/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 31/10/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/11/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/11/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/10/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 31/10/2009
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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