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21/11/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Sandown Hillside, Saturday, 14th. November, 2009.

Sandown Hillside - Sandown Guineas Day
Track: Good
Rail: True position
Penetrometer: 5.38

R1 $70,000 Rating 95. Handicap.
Distance: 1700 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Tintern
Days since last start: 9
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 1-15
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.45
Top fluctuation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Hickmott

R2 $100,000 2YO. Listed. Set weights.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Stirling Grove
Days since last start: 42
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.25
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Richard Jolly

R3 $70,000 Rating 95. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Snip Esprit
Days since last start: 11
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 4-15
Result this start: 9th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.60
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: John Symons & Sheila Laxon

R4 $100,000 3YO Fillies. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Europa Point
Days since last start: 11
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-14
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R5 $100,000 Open. Listed. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Lucky Secret
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 5-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R6 $350,000 Sandown Guineas.
3YO. Group 2.
Set weights.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Kidnapped
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R7 $350,000 Sandown Classic.
Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Scenic Shot
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Shane Scriven
Trainer: Daniel Morton

R8 $125,000 Quality. Group 3. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Sound Of Nature
Days since last start: 11
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 3-14
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R9 $100,000 Mares. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Rose Syrah
Days since last start: 11
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 3-16
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.20
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Tony Noonan

Comments:
Two of the three winning favourites won their previous race which was held no longer then two weeks earlier. However, in R5 Lucky Secret won after being unplaced at its previous start. In R3 Snip Esprit dropped back in distance from 1300 metres to 1200 metres and was unplaced at its previous start. It ran last. Sound Of Nature in R8 dropped back in distance from 1800 metres to 1500 metres after 11 days and was well beaten. In R2 the favourite, Stirling Grove, had six weeks between 1000 metres runs and was well beaten.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting on pace or run on horses?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Winning Jockey horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 14/11/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 7/11/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 31/10/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/11/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/11/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/10/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 31/10/2009
Punt to Win index


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If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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