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21/11/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 14th. November, 2009.
On this day the $350,000 Sandown Guineas and the $350,000 Sandown Classic were run at the Sandown Hillside horse racing track.

Sandown Hillside - Sandown Guineas Day
Track Good

R5 $100,000 Open. Listed. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Lucky Secret
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R6 $350,000 3YO. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Kidnapped
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden


Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $26,500 2MWLY. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Gilded Boots
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Michael Hoppo
Trainer: Stuart Gower
Winner: Flying Merkel
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.50
Jockey: Dean Holland
Trainer: Scott Trenowden

R2 $26,500 3YO. Fillies. 0MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 3
Favourite: Luce Del Mare
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.40
Top fluctuation: $1.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.10
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R3 $41,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Catapulted
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R4 $26,500 3YO and up. 2MWLY. Handicap.
Distance: 1539 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Our Scene
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Dom Tourneur
Trainer: Michael O'Leary
Winner: Spirit Of Capri
Starting price: $9.50
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $11.40
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: Bill Peake

R5 $26,500 3YO. 1MWLY. Handicap.
Distance: 1539 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Believe 'N' Achieve
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting on pace or run on horses?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Winning Jockey horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 14/11/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 7/11/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 31/10/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/11/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/11/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/10/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 31/10/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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