Flemington Heavy Track
Heavy going for punters
Last Saturday we had a Heavy 9 rated track at Flemington. It was by far the heaviest track for a Saturday meeting in Melbourne this year. That should have been a red alert to punters and they should have avoided backing short priced favourites.
Let's see how the favourite punters fared on Saturday:
Starting price: $4.00
This 3YO filly had four wins from four starts. She had never raced on a track worse than Dead.
R2: Purple Chocolate
Starting price: $3.20
This 3YO gelding had raced once on a Heavy track at Moonee Valley ( a very different proposition to a Heavy 9 at Flemington.) At Moonee Valley he was a beaten favourite and finished second.
R3: The Italian
Starting price: $3.60 (backed in from $4.00)
This 2YO colt had never raced on a Heavy track. He was unplaced at his only run on a Slow track.
Starting price: $2.80 (backed in from $3.00)
Success. A winner! This 5YO mare had twice raced on Heavy tracks for a win and a second.
R5: Prince Dande Lion
Starting price: $2.40 (backed in from $2.80)
This 3YO gelding was looked on as a "good thing" probably on the basis of an eight lengths win last year in a Mornington maiden on a Heavy track. He had been unplaced in his two starts on Slow tracks and had one win from three starts on Heavy tracks. While finishing second at Flemington, he was beaten by six lengths.
R6: Jacques Le Naif (equal favourite)
Starting price: $4.60 (backed in from $5.00)
This 5YO gelding had an excellent record on Slow tracks - three wins from three starts. However at his only previous run on a Heavy track he finished third.
Astrodame (equal favourite)
Starting price: $4.60
This 4YO mare had one win from two starts on Slow tracks but had been unplaced at her two runs on Heavy tracks. She was also a proven non-winner, having only won two of her previous 29 starts.
Starting price: $3.70
This 4YO gelding had raced 16 times, but had never been on a track rated worse than Dead. He did not handle the conditions.
R8: Emerald Jack
Starting price: $3.00 (backed in from $3.80)
This 5YO gelding had raced twice on Heavy tracks for a second and a win by over three lengths at Flemington in June last year. He just missed out by a long neck on Saturday. The real issue is whether he deserved to be as short as $3.00.
This edition of Punt to Win:
Flemington Heavy track - punters wagering favourites
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields - Rosehill & Flemington
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill & Flemington
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 6/5/2006
Punt to Win index
2005 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds?
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