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14/10/2006 edition

Spring Carnival Horse Racing Form Analysis

Favourites punters wiped out on Saturday.

Punters betting favourites got absolutely taken to the cleaners at the big Randwick Epsom Handicap Day and Flemington Turnbull Stakes Day meetings last Saturday.

Here's the disaster for favourites starting below $5.00 in fields of 14 or more horses.

Randwick - Epsom Handicap Day

I Have No Fear
Starting price - $3.00
Field size - 14
Finishing position - fifth

Mearas
Starting price - $3.00
Field size - 16
Finishing position - sixth

Magnus
Starting price - $4.00
Field size - 14
Finishing position - second

Molotov
Starting price - $4.80
Field size - 16
Finishing position - fifth

Gallant Tess
Starting price - $4.60
Field size - 19
Finishing position - tenth

Danasierra
Starting price - $3.20
Field size - 15
Finishing position - seventh

Flemington - Turnbull Stakes Day

Showify
Starting price - $4.80
Field size - 15
Finishing position - sixth

Spielmeister
Starting price - $2.30
Field size - 16
Finishing position - fourth

Miss Finland
Starting price - $1.60
Field size - 14
Finishing position - second

Lad Of The Manor
Starting price - $3.80
Field size - 16
Finishing position - thirteenth

Belle Bizarre
Starting price - $4.40
Field size - 15
Finishing position - sixth

Accardo
Starting price - $2.70
Field size - 15
Finishing position - fourth

Put simply, when there are plenty of classy horses in a big field, taking short odds about the favourite is a recipe for a betting disaster. Sure, a number of the favourites had bad luck, but that is to be expected in big fields with keenly contested racing. What is plainly obvious is the starting price odds did not allow for any bad luck in running.

To conclude, the starting price odds punters took about most of these favourites in big, wide open races with fields of 14 or more runners was patently absurd. It was like a betting death wish.

The smart punters will learn from it. But other punters will continue backing short priced favourites in big, open fields and wonder why they consistently lose money.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Melbourne & Sydney Spring Carnival horse racing - betting favourites
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Beat The Tipsters' Poll horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: 7/10/2006 - Randwick & Flemington
Betting tips from the track: 30/9/2006 - Randwick - George Main Stakes Day

Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 30/9/2006
Punt to Win index


2005 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Coronga 10.80 13.70 $29
Funlove 8.40 11.20 $28
All Bar One 15.20 17.50 $23
Segments 7.40 9.50 $21
Testafiable 6.20 8.30 $21
Freeroller 10.10 12.10 $20
Glamour Puss 9.00 10.60 $16


 

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