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14/10/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 7th. October.

Randwick - Epsom Handicap Day: Track Good

R2 $125,000 3YO. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Gold Edition
Result: second
Starting price: $1.65
Top fluctuation: $1.80
Jockey: Glenn Lynch
Trainer: Ron Maund
Winner: Reigning To Win
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: John O'Shea


Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $18,000 Hurdle. Handicap.
Distance: 3200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Poker Face
Result: fifth
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
Jockey: Steven Pateman
Trainer: Robbie Laing
Winner: Miss Echuca
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.50
Jockey: Jamie Julian
Trainer: Brian Searle

R2 $30,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Hong Kong Cheri
Result: first

Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Mark Pegus
Trainer: Ray Cleaver

R3 $20,000 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Idalou
Result: fourth
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $1.70
Jockey: Ben Hoppo
Trainer: Trevor Dansie
Winner: Umatrue
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Troy Baker
Trainer: Phillip Stokes

R4 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs2ly. Handicap.
Distance: 2052 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Ista Kareem
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
Jockey: Peter Roff
Trainer: Jeremy Gask
Winner: Almost Never
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $12.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.30
Jockey: Brendon McCoull
Trainer: Leon Macdonald


Here are the results from Saturday, 30th. September.

Randwick - George Main Stakes Day: Track Good

R1 $200,000 3YO. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Court Command
Result: first

Starting price: $1.22
Top fluctuation: $1.24
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.20
Jockey: Darryl McLellan
Trainer: Darren Smith


Victoria Park: Track Good

R1 $15,000 3YO. Class 2. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Umatrue
Result: first

Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Troy Baker
Trainer: Phillip Stokes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Melbourne & Sydney Spring Carnival horse racing - betting favourites
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Beat The Tipsters' Poll horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: 7/10/2006 - Randwick & Flemington
Betting tips from the track: 30/9/2006 - Randwick - George Main Stakes Day

Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 30/9/2006
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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