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17/3/2012 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 10th. March, 2012.

On this day at Flemington horse race track the $1,000,000 Group 1 Newmarket Handicap, with a big field of 22, was run over 1200 metres and the $1,000,000 Group 1 Weight for Age Australian Cup was run over 2000 metres. Also the $350,000 3YO & UP Group 1 Weight for Age Chipping Norton Stakes run over 1600 metres was held at Warwick Farm horse race track.

With the absence of champion mare Black Caviar, the world's top sprinter, 6YO gelding Hay List, the world's number two sprinter, won the Newmarket Handicap by a half head, handicapped at 58.5kg., a 50 years weight carrying record. Hay List was ridden by Glyn Schofield and trained by John McNair. Hay List now has 15 wins and 5 seconds (four of those to Black Caviar) from just 22 race starts. Second to Hay List was 4YO gelding Buffering, which started at $21.00. Buffering was ridden by Michael Rodd and trained by Robert Heathcote.

The Australian Cup
was won by 6YO gelding Manighar which started at $7.00 with the bookmakers. Manighar was ridden by Luke Nolen and trained by Peter G Moody. Second by a nose in this field of eight was the 2011 Caulfield Cup winner, 4YO mare Southern Speed, which started at $8.50. Southern Speed was ridden by Craig Williams and trained by Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas. Resuming from a spell of four months was the $2.40 favourite, 7YO horse Americain, who finished a close fourth to Dunaden in the 2011 Melbourne Cup. Americain ran a strong third, in the Australian Cup, only beaten a half length. Americain was ridden by Steven Arnold and trained by David Hayes.

The Chipping Norton Stakes was won by 5YO gelding Shoot Out, which started at $5.00 with the bookies. Shoot Out was ridden by Hugh Bowman and trained by Chris Waller. The $2.40 favourite, 4YO mare Pinker Pinker, finished a disappointing sixth, beaten by nearly six lengths in this field of eight. Pinker Pinker was ridden by Blake Shinn and trained by Greg Eurell.

Warwick Farm
: Track Slow.

R4 $175,000 3YO. Fillies. Group 2. Surround Stakes. Set weights.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Streama
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.45
Top fluctuation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Guy Walter

R7 $125,000 3YO & UP. Group 3. Liverpool City Cup. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Neeson
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Jay Ford
Trainer: Joseph Pride
Winner: Ofcourseican
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.30
Jockey: Kathy O'Hara
Trainer: Ron Quinton

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horses winning by four lengths
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Small Horse Race Fields free horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/3/2012
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/3/2012 & 25/2/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 25/2/2012
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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