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17/3/2012 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for horse racing punters betting favourites in small horse racing fields on Saturday, 3rd. March, 2012.

On this day the $750,000 3YO Group 1 Australian Guineas run over 1400 metres was held at Flemington horse race track.

3YO filly Mosheen won the race by 3 lengths. Mosheen firmed from $6.00 on track to start at $5.00. Mosheen was ridden by Danny Nikolic and trained by Robert Smerdon.

The $4.20 favourite, 3YO colt Helmet, finished a disappointing twelfth in the field of 16, beaten by more than 11 lengths. Helmet was ridden by Kerrin McEvoy and trained by Peter Snowden.

Rosehill: Track Heavy.

R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 84. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Detours
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R3 $100,000 3YO. Quality. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1110 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Nobby Snip
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R7 $125,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Millie Fox Stakes. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Red Tracer
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.65
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Chris Waller


Here are the results for horse racing punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 25th. February, 2012.

On this day the $1,000,000 2YO Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes and the $400,000 Group 1 Oakleigh Plate Handicap were held.

The Blue Diamond Stakes was won by 2YO filly Samaready, the well backed favourite, which firmed from $2.40 to start at $2.20 in the bookmaker betting ring. Samaready was trained by Mick Price and ridden by Craig Newitt.

Finishing second, beaten by 3 lengths was the Gai Waterhouse trained filly No Looking Back, which at $6.50 was the second favourite. Its jockey was Nash Rawiller.

The Oakleigh Plate produced an upset, with 6YO gelding Woorim winning. It started at $21.00 and paid best tote odds of $22.70. Woorim was trained by Robert Heathcote and its jockey was Damian Brown. Finishing second, beaten by a nose was the John O'Shea trained 3YO filly Elite Falls, which started at $51.00. It was ridden by Craig Newitt. The $3.20 favourite, 3YO colt Sepoy, which came into the race with a record of 10 wins and 1 second from 11 race starts, finished fifth, one length from Woorim. Sepoy was trained by Peter Snowden and ridden by Kerrin McEvoy.

Caulfield: Track Dead R1 - R3, Good R4 - R9.

Blue Diamond Stakes Day.

R1 $70,000 3YO & Up. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Rock Of Ages
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody


Rosehill: Track Dead R1 - R6, Good R7 - R8.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Tatra
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.40
Jockey: Joshua Parr
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Dear Demi
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.40
Jockey: Peter Robl
Trainer: Clarry Conners

R2 $70,000 3YO. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Laser Hawk
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.35
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horses winning by four lengths
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Small Horse Race Fields free horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/3/2012
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/3/2012 & 25/2/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 25/2/2012
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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