Punt to Win
There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about
favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring
favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and
Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.
Here are the results for horse racing punters betting favourites in small horse racing fields on Saturday, 3rd. March, 2012.
On this day the $750,000 3YO Group 1 Australian Guineas run over 1400 metres was held at Flemington horse race track.
Rosehill: Track Heavy.
R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 84. Handicap.
R3 $100,000 3YO. Quality. Listed. Handicap.
R7 $125,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Millie Fox Stakes. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.
Here are the results for horse racing punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 25th. February, 2012.
The Oakleigh Plate produced an upset, with 6YO gelding Woorim winning. It started at $21.00 and paid best tote odds of $22.70. Woorim was trained by Robert Heathcote and its jockey was Damian Brown. Finishing second, beaten by a nose was the John O'Shea trained 3YO filly Elite Falls, which started at $51.00. It was ridden by Craig Newitt. The $3.20 favourite, 3YO colt Sepoy, which came into the race with a record of 10 wins and 1 second from 11 race starts, finished fifth, one length from Woorim. Sepoy was trained by Peter Snowden and ridden by Kerrin McEvoy.
Caulfield: Track Dead R1 - R3, Good R4 - R9.
Blue Diamond Stakes Day.
R1 $70,000 3YO & Up. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Rosehill: Track Dead R1 - R6, Good R7 - R8.
R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
R2 $70,000 3YO. Rating 80. Handicap.
This edition of Punt to Win:
You Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.
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