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17/3/2012 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 60kg. (61kg. with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

With the recent increase in weights this table below now shows how horses that carried 60kg. or more in a handicap (not 59 kg.) and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $10.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We have eliminated any races where more than three horses carried at least 60kg. with a starting price of $10.00 or shorter. We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Warwick Farm - 10/3/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Title
62.5kg.
3
1100
$9.00
7/8
Morphettville - 10/3/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
We're Gonna Rock
60kg.
6
1000
$2.50fav.
1/6
Flemington - 3/3/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Drunken Sailor
60kg.
4
2600
$3.70efav.
1/9
Rosehill - 3/3/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Charing Cross
60kg.
5
1800
$5.50
8/10
Caulfield - 25/2/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Spirit Song
60kg.
6
2000
$2.80
2/7
Morphettville - 11/2/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Arinos
60.5kg.
5
1000
$6.50
3/6
Grand Ginger
60kg.
8
1400
$3.60fav.
10/14
Morphettville - 4/2/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Gold Bundle
60.5kg.
2
1100
$7.00
4/10
Bit Of A Dude
60kg.
8
1100
$7.50
1/10
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horses winning by four lengths
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Small Horse Race Fields free horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/3/2012
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/3/2012 & 25/2/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 25/2/2012
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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