Punt to Win

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17/5/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from the big Saturday, 26th. April, Doncaster Handicap and Australian Derby Day at Randwick.

Randwick: Track Heavy

R7 $500,000 3YO and upward. Weight for Age. Group 1.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Apache Cat
Result: first

Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.25
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Greg Eurell

Cheltenham: Track Good

R1 $20,000 Open. Hurdle. Handicap.
Distance: 3000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Equal Favourite: Donor
Result: first

Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Paul Hamblin
Trainer: Karen Byrnes
Equal Favourite: Snazzy Lad
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Craig Durden
Trainer: Heather Frew

R2 $22,000 Rst. 91. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Zaazorro
Result: first

Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Karen Byrnes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Turning horse racing losses into profits by staking
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Free Horse Racing Ratings betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/5/2008 and 3/5/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/4/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 10/5/2008 and 3/5/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 26/4/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 26/4/2008
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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