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17/5/2008 edition

Horse Racing Betting Strategies

When big money is bet on a horse is that a winning betting tip straight from the race track? Does it pay for punters to follow the money and expect to win?

When the horse wins, so you can judge for yourself whether you should also "follow the money" horses on the tote over the long term, we have also included the the SuperTab tote dividends. Plenty of tote punters will have collected that tote dividend. Many of them would have "followed the money" on the tote.

Are they getting big enough winning dividends when they "follow the money" on the tote to cover themselves for when "following the tote money loses"?

The jockeys and trainers are also important. You may see some jockeys and trainers consistently bringing home plunges whereas others regularly fail to deliver.

Each week we feature tables showing just how successful the "smart money" was. To qualify a horse must have firmed 5% in the bookmakers' official betting market. For example if a horse was backed in from $5.00 (20%) to $4.00 (25%) it will qualify. You can also check tables of betting odds and what their percentages are at Odds calculator.

Saturday, 10th. May, 2008

Horse, jockey
and trainer

Firmed from % Firm SuperTab
Archie Senior
7.00 5.00 5.71% --- 3/10
James Winks (jockey) Danny O'Brien (trainer)
With the main New South Wales meeting held at Hawkesbury, there was no Sydney metropolitan race meeting this Saturday.
Sydney Cup Day
Saturday, 3rd. May, 2008

Horse, jockey
and trainer

Firmed from % Firm SuperTab
Little Sai Wan
4.40 3.50 5.84% --- 3/11
Corey Brown (jockey) Anthony Cummings (trainer)
6.50 4.60 6.36% --- 3/13
Blake Shinn Neville Layt
Tuesday Joy
2.30 1.90 9.15% --- 3/9
Glen Boss Gai Waterhouse
Moonee Valley
Saturday, 3rd. May, 2008

Horse, jockey
and trainer

Firmed from % Firm SuperTab
6.50 4.80 5.45% --- 3/7
Steven King (jockey) Danny O'Brien (trainer)
3.80 2.90 8.16% 3.00 1/8
Steven King Danny O'Brien
5.00 3.90 5.64% 3.90 1/6
Michelle Payne Karen Fox
Miss Evergreen
3.60 3.00 5.55% --- 3/9
Sebastain Murphy Dale Short

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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