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17/12/2011 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse racing fields on Saturday, 26th. November, 2011.

Canterbury: Track Heavy R1-R4, Slow R5-R8.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Don't Blink
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Christian Reith
Trainer: John O'Shea

R3 $70,000 3YO & UP. Welter. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Tiger Tees
Result: =2nd./3rd.
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Christian Reith
Trainer: Joseph Pride
Winner: Atomic Force
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.80
Jockey: Chad Schofield
Trainer: Darren Smith

R4 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Rating 84. Handicap.
Distance: 1550 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Savannah's Choice
Result: 7th.
Starting price: $4.20
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Triple Six
Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctuation: $8.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.70
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Grahame Begg

R8 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 85. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Rampart
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: Shaun Guymer
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: We Betcha
Starting price: $10.00
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.80
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Chris Waller


Sandown Hillside: Track Slow R1-R2, Heavy R3-R8.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 900 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Members Joy
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R2 $70,000 3YO. Rating 78. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Cash Bound
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: Darren Weir

R3 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Tariana
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $3.50
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price
Winner: Let's Be Happy
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.20
Jockey: Jack Hill
Trainer: Mick Clark

R5 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Snitza
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $2.60
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Rick Hore-Lacy
Winner: Full Peal
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainer: Bill & Symon Wilde

R7 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Big Spirit
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.40
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Rick Hore-Lacy
Winner: Show Up
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.50
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Leon Corstens

R8 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Population
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainer: Anthony Freedman


Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 19th. November, 2011.

On this day the $1 million Group 1 Railway Stakes Handicap run over 1600 metres was held at Ascot horse racing track. It was won on protest by the $4.00 favourite, 4YO gelding Luckygray, which finished a long neck behind He's Remarkable. Luckygray was trained by Gino Poletti and ridden by Shaun O’Donnell. $5.50 third favourite He's Remarkable which was relegated to second was trained by Roger James and ridden by Kerrin McEvoy.

Also run at Ascot over 1200 metres was the $500,000 Group 1 Weight for Age Winterbottom Stakes. It was comfortably won by the $2.20 favourite, 6YO mare Ortensia. Ortensia was trained by Paul Messara and ridden by Craig Williams.

Warwick Farm: Track Dead.

R2 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Mikiyama
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.80
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Revolt
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: Rod Quinn
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes


Moonee Valley: Track Dead.

R3 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Limerock
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.40
Jockey: Ashley Thompson
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Maquina
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.30
Jockey: Katelyn Mallyon
Trainer: Robbie Laing


Doomben: Track Good.

R2 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Rundle
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.40
Top fluctuation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Damian Browne
Trainer: Kelly Purdy

This edition of Punt to Win:
Understanding horse racing betting markets and betting odds
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Bunched Finish horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/12/2011 & 3/12//2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/11/2011 & 19/11/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 19/11/2011
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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