19/11/2011 edition

Free Horse Racing Betting Tips

What a dud tip - odds are important

The following story will illustrate the importance of getting decent odds for your bets. It also illustrates how it is important to be aware of factors that can make your bet far from the "certainty" that racing media "experts" tell you it is.

An example we wrote up from the early 2000s will do, as this type of poor "tipping" doesn't change over the years.

The Expat was a huge media tip for an Oaks Day meeting at Flemington. We heard one "expert" call it his "bet of the day."

Taking short odds about horses like The Expat guarantees you must lose over the long term.

Consider these points:

1. Weight rise from 52kg. to 58kg. The most weight he had carried in his career of nine starts was 55.5kg.

2. Terrible barrier. He went from nine at his previous start to 15 at the Flemington 1400 metres start.

3. Terrible price. He was $2.00 favourite in the big 16 horse field.

The Expat worked early to get the lead, weakened when the pressure was applied in the straight and finished sixth, beaten by over five lengths.

Our suggestion is if you want to back a horse which rises significantly in weight only do so if you get good odds about the animal. Ignore those badly weighted, short priced horses with poor barriers being touted for free by the racing media.

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This edition of Punt to Win:
Free horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Duck Egg horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/11/2011 & 5/11//2011
Betting favourites in small fields: Melbourne Cup Day & Victoria Derby Day 2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 29/10/2011
Punt to Win index

2011 Melbourne Cup Day
Winners under $10.00
Best Bookmaker Win Odds
Best Tote Odds

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