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19/11/2011 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 12th. November, 2011.

Sandown Hillside: Sandown Guineas Day - Track Dead.

R6 $351,000 Zipping Classic. Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Americain
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.55
Top fluctuation: $1.55
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Gerald Mosse
Trainer: Alain de Royer Dupre


Rosehill: Track Good.

R2 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Rating 73. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Colorado Claire
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: John O'Shea

R4 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Rating 84. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Winner Take All
Result: 7th.
Starting price: $4.40
Jockey: Joshua Parr
Trainer: Bill Prain
Winner: Oakfield Beauty
Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.80
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Darren Smith


Eagle Farm: Track Good.

R1 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Ready To Rip
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: Andrew Williamson
Winner: Seek And Find
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Jason Taylor
Trainer: Kelso Wood


Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 5th. November, 2011.

On this day Australia's champion 5YO mare, Black Caviar, won her sixteenth consecutive race in the $1,000,000 Weight for Age Victoria Racing Club Stakes (registered name of the Patinack Farm Classic) at Flemington horse race track. Black Caviar has never yet been beaten!! Black Caviar was trained by Peter G. Moody and ridden by Luke Nolen.

In addition, the $1,000,000 Quality Group 1 Handicap, the Cantala Stakes (registered name of the Emirates Stakes) run over 1600 metres was won by Albert The Fat, ridden by Mark Zahra and trained by Chris Waller. Albert The Fat started at $17.00 and paid best tote odds of $19.10. The $6.00 favourite in this field of 16, Love Conquers All, finished sixth, more than three lengths from the winner. Love Conquers All was trained by Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes and ridden by Darren Beadman.

Flemington: Cantala Stakes Day - Track R1 - R3 Dead, R4 - R9 Good.

R5 $1,000,000 Victoria Racing Club Stakes. (Registered name.) Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Black Caviar
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.05
Top fluctuation: $1.05
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.04
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody


Randwick: Track Good.

R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 79. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Merchandise
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Chris Waller

R2 $70,000 3YO. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Subarc
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.60
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Haut Normandie
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Shaun Guymer
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R4 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Nuptse
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.70
Jockey: Nathan Berry
Trainer: Brian Wakefield
Winner: Cheap Thrills
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.40
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Kris Lees

This edition of Punt to Win:
Free horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Duck Egg horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/11/2011 & 5/11//2011
Betting favourites in small fields: Melbourne Cup Day & Victoria Derby Day 2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 29/10/2011
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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