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19/11/2011 edition

Melbourne Cup and Victoria Derby Day

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse racing fields on Tuesday, 1st. November, 2011.

On this day the $6 million Group 1 Melbourne Cup was held at Flemington horse race track over 3,200 metres. Second favourite, 6YO French entire Dunedin, won the Melbourne Cup in the closest finish in Melbourne Cup history, from 6YO English gelding, Red Cadeaux.

Dunedin, t
rained by Mikel Delzangles, was ridden by replacement fly-in jockey Christophe Lemaire, following Craig Williams unsuccessful legal efforts to delay his riding suspension. In the Flemington bookmaker betting ring Dunedin firmed from $9.00 to start at $8.50. Dunedin's only other race in Australia was a win in the 2400 metres Group 3 Geelong Cup on 19th. October. The Geelong Cup has become a key form race for Melbourne Cup winners.

Red Cadeaux was trained by Ed Dunlop and ridden by top local hoop Michael Rodd. Red Cadeaux started at $31.00.

The $5.00 favourite, 7YO entire Americain, lugging top weight of 58kg, finished the race off strongly to finish fourth, 1.5 lengths from the winner. Americain was trained by Alain de Royer Dupre and ridden by Gerald Mosse.

Eagle Farm: Track Slow R1, Dead R2 - R8.

R1 $13,000 Fillies & Mares. Class 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Taunt Pauline
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $2.25
Jockey: Scott Galloway
Trainer: Trevor Bailey
Winner: She Can Command
Starting price: $16.00
Top fluctuation: $16.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $13.50
Jockey: Matthew Palmer
Trainer: Desleigh Forster

R8 $13,000 Colts, Geldings & Entires. Class 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Cape Kidnappers
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.85
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: Kelly Schweida


Here is the result for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 29th. October, 2011.

On this day the $1.5 million Group 1 Victoria Derby was held at Flemington horse racing track. The Derby was won by 3YO gelding Sangster which was steady in the bookmaker betting ring at $13.00. Best tote odds was $15.20. Sangster was trained by Trent Busuttin and ridden by Hugh Bowman. Beaten a head in the Derby was 3YO gelding Induna, trained by Peter Snowden and ridden by Kerrin McEvoy. Induna started second favourite at $5.50. The Derby is not a race for favourites. 3YO gelding Manawanui firmed from $2.60 to start at the short odds of $2.50. It finished sixth, more than three lengths from the winner. Manawanui was trained by Ron Leemon and ridden by Glyn Schofield.

The traditional Melbourne Cup lead up race, the $1,000,000 Group 1 Weight for Age Mackinnon Stakes, was also held at Flemington this day. The winner was 6YO entire, Glass Harmonium, which started at $7.00. Glass Harmonium was was trained by Michael Moroney and ridden by Damien Oliver.

Rosehill: Track Dead.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Brilliant Snitzel
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $2.10
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Winner: Pure Hustle
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.40
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

This edition of Punt to Win:
Free horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Duck Egg horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/11/2011 & 5/11//2011
Betting favourites in small fields: Melbourne Cup Day & Victoria Derby Day 2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 29/10/2011
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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