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17/12/2011 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Morphettville - 10/12/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Instructor
59kg.
7
2019
$3.70
5/7
Caulfield - 3/12/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mabsam
59kg.
6
1400
$6.50
6/11
Catapulted
60kg.
4
1100
$5.00e.fav.
2/15
Canterbury - 26/11/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Atomic Force
59kg.
7
1100
$4.60
1/7
Sandown Hillside - 26/11/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Cash Bound
59kg.
6
1400
$2.60fav.
1/6
Eagle Farm - 26/11/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Streets Away
59.5kg.
13
1800
$8.50
9/13
Morphettville - 26/11/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Periduki
60kg.
2
1000
$3.20fav.
3/8
Moonee Valley - 19/11/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
The Fairy's Kiss
59kg.
4
1200
$3.00fav.
2/10
Finiguerra
59kg.
13
2040
$9.50
6/13
Definitely Ready
59kg.
10
1000
$6.50
4/11
Morphettville - 12/11/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Budriguez
59kg.
4
1400
$2.00fav.
2/8
Flemington - 5/11/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Erewhon
59kg.
6
1600
$3.70fav.
7/10
He's Remarkable
59kg.
2
1600
$5.50
1/10
Morphettville - 5/11/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Instructor
59kg.
3
1550
$10.00
3/5
Harmonic
59.5kg.
7
1400
$2.70
7/7
Justify That
59kg.
2
1400
$2.60fav.
1/8
Protesta
59.5kg.
2
1250
$4.00
8/9
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Understanding horse racing betting markets and betting odds
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Bunched Finish horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/12/2011 & 3/12//2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/11/2011 & 19/11/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 19/11/2011
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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