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18/5/2013 edition

The Most Important Key Form Factors in Horse Racing Betting

Continued from previous page

"4. Recent form - last four starts, last run, days since racing etc. Improving? How is it running?"

Our horse racing professional replies:
It is difficult to isolate recent form because it is also important to take account of the distance, track conditions, run in the race and so many other factors before you can assess whether or not a horse is improving.

But as a rule of thumb most horses need a few runs in to improve their fitness levels. Of course there are also first up specialists.

A horse may have had three runs in from a spell, been placed over an unsuitable distance first up and then run over unsuitable conditions at its next two starts, say rain affected tracks. It then gets a dry track fourth up and wins at big odds.

Nothing is too easy and straight forward. If it looks easy and straight forward you can guarantee the odds will not be there.

"5. Analysts, handicappers and tipsters, the markets. I can never have the depth of analysis of the experts: I'd be a fool not to listen to what they have to say."

Our horse racing professional replies:
Don't automatically assume everything said by race analysts and tipsters is correct. They are hyped up by their media bosses as "experts" when that is often not the case. It's not that difficult to sound like an expert to the average punter by just repeating some video notes they have in front of them.

Do the media tipsters explain why they have horse A on top instead of horse B? Sure, they can tell you what horse A has done and what horse B has done, but do they tell you why that means horse A should be put on top and horse B second? For example, have a look at most published pre race comments to see what we mean.

"6. That's an awful lot of data to synthesize. I'm spending about 45 minutes on a race. And then, of course, having studied it in depth, and having ruined your eyesight on the fine print in the form guide, you might come up with... the favourite."

Our horse racing professional replies:
One of the most important points for successful betting is to develop a reliable method for determining what odds to accept on different horses when you bet. It is fine backing the favourite if it is at value odds, but more often than not it will be under its true winning chances.

"7. Great forum. Some very useful stuff. Thanks to all. Happy punting. ... Hermes."

Posted in the OZmium horse racing and sports betting forum by Hermes on June 17, 2002.

Our legendary tipster, Lucky Lil continues to give you FREE horse racing tips that WIN BIG!

For example:

On Saturday, 16th. February. From just 3 tips Lucky Lil tipped $9.20 winner Commandare at Doomben.

The week before, Saturday, 9th. February, from just 3 tips Lucky Lil tipped
$10.00 winner Octavia
at Caulfield, while Vis A Tergo, $34.30, ran second at Eagle Farm and paid $6.60 for the place.

Fresh and first up from our end of year/New Year break, on Saturday 19th. January, from just 3 tips Lucky Lil tipped $15.00 winner Tukiyo at Eagle Farm PLUS $6.00 winner Lord Of Brazil at Flemington.

Who can forget Lucky Lil's winning tips on some of the biggest Melbourne Spring Carnival racing days of 2012?


On Caulfield Cup Day Lucky Lil tipped $15.00 Caulfield Cup Winner Dunaden and Snitsky $6.50 at Randwick!

On Cox Plate Day from 3 tips
Lucky Lil tipped $10.00 Winner Mosse Diva at Rosehill.

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This edition of Punt to Win:
The key form factors in horse racing betting
The Free Wide Barrier horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 11/5/2013 & 4/5/2013
Group 1 horse racing results: 27/4/2013 - Randwick
Group 1 horse racing results: 27/4/2013 - Morphettville
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 11/5/2013

Betting favourites in small fields: 4/5/2013 & 27/4/2013
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 27/4/2013
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present

2012 Melbourne Cup Day
Bookmaker Win Dividends


Get these dividends? Or these bookmaker dividends! Extra Profit $30 bet
Koonoomoo 22.70 31.00 $249
Kasane 26.00 28.70 $81
Green Moon 20.00 22.50 $75
Mahisara 10.20 12.40 $66
Walk With Attitude 6.50 8.50 $60
Verdant 6.60 7.50 $27
Eclair Surprise 9.50 10.30 $24
Villa Verde 3.00 3.80 $24
Genteel 3.70 4.00 $9
Unpretentious 3.90 4.20 $9


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