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18/5/2013 edition

The Key Form Factors in Horse Racing Betting

Looking through our archives, below is an interesting posting from the OZmium horse racing and sports betting forum.

"I'm fairly new to punting and I'm still learning the basics. I've collected lots of opinions and info on selection criteria and methods. I'm trying to make sense of it and get it clear in my mind. I'd greatly appreciate any further ideas or advice from punters on-line here.

I'm a hobby punter, not a professional, so there are limits to the amount of time I can devote to studying a race. I want to limit it to what I can easily extract from The Sportsman guides. It seems to me I need to look at:

1. Physical factors - barrier, weight, number of runners, length of race, state of track. etc. The immutable parameters of the race. "

Our horse racing professional replies:
Be very wary of horses rising substantially in weight and also getting a poor barrier. Many are sent out incorrectly as short priced favourites because they "have the class."

The more runners in a race, even if they are terrible runners, the longer odds you need for the best horses. The more runners in a race, the more likely some of the best horses in the race will have bad luck.

Probably the best distances to bet on are 1200 to 1600 metres.

"2. Non-horse factors - trainer and jockey. (Horses are not greyhounds after all.)"

Our horse racing professional replies:
Very important. We have our own trainer and jockey ratings. You can get a big advantage if you can spot an outstanding claiming apprentice before everyone else, or an outstanding trainer before everyone else latches on. Keep notes of anything a trainer does out of the ordinary. For example, dropping a horse back from 1600 metres to 1200 metres and winning.

"3. Career form - place average, prize average, performance over the distance and at track. Class. What calibre horse?"

Our horse racing professional replies:
Win and place strike rates indicate at least two important things:
a) How consistent the horse is.
b) How well placed the horse has been.

We tend to ignore average prize money, though a lot of horse racing punters make use of it. It gets distorted by prize money increases over time and abnormal prize money for rich restricted races.

It's important to look behind the figures. For example a horse with three unplaced runs at a track from three starts might have actually performed better in ratings terms than a horse with two close wins and a second from three starts at the same track.

When they meet at the track the horse with the wins will usually be sent out at much shorter odds. That's how false favourites can also be created.
Continued next page

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On Saturday, 16th. February. From just 3 tips Lucky Lil tipped $9.20 winner Commandare at Doomben.

The week before, Saturday, 9th. February, from just 3 tips Lucky Lil tipped
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Who can forget Lucky Lil's winning tips on some of the biggest Melbourne Spring Carnival racing days of 2012?


On Caulfield Cup Day Lucky Lil tipped $15.00 Caulfield Cup Winner Dunaden and Snitsky $6.50 at Randwick!

On Cox Plate Day from 3 tips
Lucky Lil tipped $10.00 Winner Mosse Diva at Rosehill.

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This edition of Punt to Win:
The key form factors in horse racing betting
The Free Wide Barrier horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 11/5/2013 & 4/5/2013
Group 1 horse racing results: 27/4/2013 - Randwick
Group 1 horse racing results: 27/4/2013 - Morphettville
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 11/5/2013

Betting favourites in small fields: 4/5/2013 & 27/4/2013
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 27/4/2013
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present

2012 Melbourne Cup Day
Bookmaker Win Dividends


Get these dividends? Or these bookmaker dividends! Extra Profit $30 bet
Koonoomoo 22.70 31.00 $249
Kasane 26.00 28.70 $81
Green Moon 20.00 22.50 $75
Mahisara 10.20 12.40 $66
Walk With Attitude 6.50 8.50 $60
Verdant 6.60 7.50 $27
Eclair Surprise 9.50 10.30 $24
Villa Verde 3.00 3.80 $24
Genteel 3.70 4.00 $9
Unpretentious 3.90 4.20 $9


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