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18/5/2013 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses are handicapped with 60kg. (61kg. with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

This table below shows how horses that carried 60kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a bookmaker starting price of $10.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We have eliminated any races where more than three horses carried at least 60kg. with a starting price of $10.00 or shorter. We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Flemington - 4/5/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Precedence
60kg.
4
2000
$10.00
5/8
Morphettville - 4/5/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Esprit De Bullet
60kg.
11
1050
$7.00
8/13
Caulfield - 27/4/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Serene Star
60kg.
3
1100
$10.00
1/10
Morphettville - 27/4/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Catapulted
60.5kg.
13
1100
$4.60fav.
11/13
Randwick - 20/4/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Studio
61kg.
10
2400
$5.50equ.fav.
9/10
Kelinni
60kg.
7
2000
$5.00fav.
1/12
Caulfield - 20/4/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Precedence
60.5kg.
7
1800
$9.00
8/10
Amaethon
60.5kg.
9
1100
$10.00
7/9
Centennial Park
60kg.
6
1400
$9.00
6/7
Morphettville - 20/4/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Linton
62kg.
8
1400
$3.60fav.
1/9
Morphettville - 6/4/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Almighty Bullet
62kg.
15
1200
$7.00
6/15
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
The key form factors in horse racing betting
The Free Wide Barrier horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 11/5/2013 & 4/5/2013
Group 1 horse racing results: 27/4/2013 - Randwick
Group 1 horse racing results: 27/4/2013 - Morphettville
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 11/5/2013

Betting favourites in small fields: 4/5/2013 & 27/4/2013
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 27/4/2013
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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