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19/3/2011 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 12th. March, 2011.

On this day $1,000,000 Group 1 Newmarket Handicap and the $1,000,000 Group 1 Weight for Age Australian Cup was held at Flemington horse race track. The Newmarket Handicap was easily won by the 4YO mare Black Caviar, which set an Australian record as the first horse in the history of Australian racing to win its first ten races. Black Caviar was ridden by Luke Nolen and trained by Peter G. Moody. The Australian Cup was won by the 5YO horse Shocking, the 2009 Melbourne Cup winner. Shocking was ridden by Corey Brown and trained by Mark Kavanagh.

Warwick Farm - Randwick Guineas Day: Track Good.

R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Colts, Geldings & Entires. Rating 90. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: New Day Rising
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.90
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Syreon
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Chris Waller

Doomben: Track Dead.

R1 $50,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: God Bless Us
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.40
Jockey: Glen Colless
Trainer: Alan Bailey
Winner: True Blitz
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.60
Jockey: Damian Browne
Trainer: Ray McCall

Morphettville: Track Good.

R3 $32,000 3YO. Rating 94. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Streetcar Magic
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Justin Potter
Trainer: David Jolly

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing trifecta betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Class Runner horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/3/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/3/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/2/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 26/2/2011
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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