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19/3/2011 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 5th. March, 2011.

On this day the $750,000 3YO Group 1 Australian Guineas was held at Flemington and won by the Danny O'Brien trained filly, Shamrocker, ridden by Glen Boss. Shamrocker started at $31.00 with the bookies and paid best tote odds of $39.50. While at Warwick Farm the $350,000 Group 1 Weight for Age Chipping Norton Stakes was run and won by the Chris Waller trained 7YO gelding, Danleigh, ridden by Hugh Bowman. Danleigh started at $10.00 with the bookies and paid best tote odds of $9.00.

Flemington - Australian Guineas Day: Track Dead.

R2 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Anundjawun
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Reece Wheeler
Trainer: Shaun Dwyer
Winner: Laristan
Starting price: $12.00
Top fluctuation: $12.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.30
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes

R3 $100,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Set weights plus penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Dubleanny
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price


Warwick Farm - Chipping Norton Stakes Day: Track Good.

R1 $100,000 2YO. Set weights plus penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Anise
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.90
Jockey: Tim Clark
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Foxwedge
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: John O'Shea


Eagle Farm: Track Heavy.

R2 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Poor Judge
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Norm Hilton
Winner: Monashee Dancer
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Michael Palmer
Trainer: Darren Bell

R8 $45,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Knot Out
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.75
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Paul Messara


Morphettville: Track Good.

R7 $115,000 Lord Reims Stakes. Group 3. Set weights plus penalties. .
Distance: 2600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Maunatrice
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Trainer: Darren Weir
Winner: Guyno
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Jason Whiting
Trainer: Lou Luciani

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing trifecta betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Class Runner horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/3/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/3/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/2/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 26/2/2011
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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