Punt to Win
Horse Racing Betting Market Odds
Here is what we heard a race caller say as the horses were going into the barriers:
Here are the top three top tote horses, they are "some of the chances" and then noting that one of them had one win from 27 races concluded with the comical:
"Then you've got the rest of them really struggling. So I think this is a struggle race for everybody here."
The race caller then added:
"This is a funny race. They really haven't really had a crack at anything. I think most agree this is probably one of the hardest races of the day..."
What the race caller forgot to mention was the bookmaker betting market odds. The starting price market was 131%. That is equivalent to being offered $1.53 about the toss of a coin.
How would anyone like a total return, including your dollar, of $1.53 for guessing correctly heads or tails on the toss of a coin? That's what the horse racing betting ring market odds was equivalent to.
No wonder "They really haven't really had a crack at anything."
Because the true winning chances for horses are a matter of opinion, and not an obvious statistical fact like 50% for heads or tails, there is a chance that the bookies could get a horse's odds wrong.
But in horse racing markets of 130%+ there's not much chance of that. It's far more likely that most if not every horse is significantly under its true winning chances - in other words, a guaranteed long term losing bet for every punter!!
A betting market of 133% is equal to odds of $1.50 about the toss of a coin.
This edition of Punt to Win:
2006 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
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