Punt to Win

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19/5/2007 edition

Horse Racing Betting Market Odds

Here is what we heard a race caller say as the horses were going into the barriers:

Here are the top three top tote horses, they are "some of the chances" and then noting that one of them had one win from 27 races concluded with the comical:

"Then you've got the rest of them really struggling. So I think this is a struggle race for everybody here."

The race caller then added:

"This is a funny race. They really haven't really had a crack at anything. I think most agree this is probably one of the hardest races of the day..."

What the race caller forgot to mention was the bookmaker betting market odds. The starting price market was 131%. That is equivalent to being offered $1.53 about the toss of a coin.

How would anyone like a total return, including your dollar, of $1.53 for guessing correctly heads or tails on the toss of a coin? That's what the horse racing betting ring market odds was equivalent to.

No wonder "They really haven't really had a crack at anything."

Because the true winning chances for horses are a matter of opinion, and not an obvious statistical fact like 50% for heads or tails, there is a chance that the bookies could get a horse's odds wrong.

But in horse racing markets of 130%+ there's not much chance of that. It's far more likely that most if not every horse is significantly under its true winning chances - in other words, a guaranteed long term losing bet for every punter!!

A betting market of 133% is equal to odds of $1.50 about the toss of a coin.
A betting market of 125% is equal to odds of $1.60 about the toss of a coin.
A betting market of 118% is equal to odds of $1.70 about the toss of a coin.
A betting market of 111% is equal to odds of $1.80 about the toss of a coin.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing win wagering market odds
Get those betting odds
The Five to Eight Starters horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/5/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick and Caulfield
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 12/5/2007
Punt to Win index

2006 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Typhoon Zed 21.50 28.90 $74
Delta Blues 17.50 20.20 $27
Lyrical Bid 16.50 19.00 $25
Brom Felinity 13.30 15.70 $24
Dance Hero 12.60 14.90 $23
Southern Courage 16.20 18.30 $21


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