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19/5/2007 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 12th. May.

Randwick: Track Dead

R1 $65,000 3YO Colts & Geldings. Class 4. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Grand Cause
Result: third
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.00
Jockey: Rod Quinn
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Cocoruru
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.70
Jockey: Joshua Parr
Trainer: John Hawkes

R2 $65,000 Welter. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: six
Equal Favourite: Accumulate
Result: first

Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Tim Clark
Trainer: Bart Cummings
Equal Favourite: Kimberley Dane
Result: second
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
Jockey: Allan Robinson
Trainer: Kris Lees

R3 $65,000 3YO Fillies. Class 4. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Helluva Party
Result: second
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $2.00
Jockey: Tye Angland
Trainer: Gary Portelli
Winner: Stacked
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.00
Jockey: James Innes
Trainer: Chris Waller

R4 $65,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Class 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Neroli
Result: second
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
Jockey: Joshua Parr
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Miss Nikki
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.10
Jockey: Tye Angland
Trainer: Chris Waller


Morphettville: Track Good

R2 $20,000 2YO. Rs1mw.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: To Arms
Result: third
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Viking Turf Belle
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: David Hayes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing win wagering market odds
Get those betting odds
The Five to Eight Starters horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/5/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick and Caulfield
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 12/5/2007
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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