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19/8/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 12th. August.

Randwick: Track Slow

R1 $55,000 3YO and upward. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Mr Mister
Result: second
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Trinity Song
Starting price: $13.00
Top fluctuation: $13.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.80
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Robert Price

Eagle Farm: Track Good

R5 $5,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Bikkie Tin Blues
Result: first

Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Brad Pengelly
Trainer: Brian Smith

Here is the result from Saturday, 5th. August.

Rosehill: Track Heavy

R6 $100,000 3YO and upward. Group 3. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Crimson Reign
Result: second
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Jason McLachlan
Winner: Imprisoned
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.30
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: John O'Shea

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing wagering and betting results
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
Betting fluctuations explained
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick & Flemington
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 12/8/2006
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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