Punt to Win

Horse racing forums
Swap tips and discuss betting systems and software

Set your own odds, bet against other punters instead of pros and have the option of laying horses to lose.
Win at racing



20/10/2007 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here is the result from Saturday, 13th. October.

Caulfield Guineas Day: Track Good

R5 $400,000 3YO and upward. Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Miss Finland
Result: second
Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.75
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Maldivian
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

Here are the results from Saturday, 6th. October.

Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $20,000 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Periduki
Result: fifth
Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.60
Jockey: Amy Herrmann
Trainer: Louise Lefoe
Winner: Grisbi
Starting price: $19.00
Top fluctuation: $26.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $17.60
Jockey: Troy Baker
Trainer: David Hayes

R2 $30,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2014 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Jim's Party
Result: second
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.40
Jockey: Dominic Tourneur
Trainer: Daniel Clarken
Winner: Drumbeater
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: Robbie Laing

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing betting systems
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Super Four Winning Tips horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/10/2007 & 6/10/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 6/10/2007
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

Copyright 1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved.


Home | Contact us | Horse racing forum | Advertise

  Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.