Punt to Win
There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.
Here are the results from Saturday, 13th. November, 2010.
On this day the $350,000 Group 2 Sandown Classic was run over 2400 metres at Sandown Hillside horse racing track and won for the fourth year in a row by the Robert Hickmott trained 9YO gelding Zipping, ridden by Nicholas Hall, and the $350,000 3YO Group 2 Sandown Guineas was run over 1600 metres at Sandown Hillside horse racing track and won by the Chris Waller trained Pressday ridden by Nash Rawiller.
Sandown Hillside - Sandown Guineas and Sandown Classic Day: Track Heavy.
R7 $350,000 Group 2. Weight for Age. Sandown Classic.
Rosehill: Track Good R1-R4, Dead R5-R8.
R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
R2 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 90. Handicap.
R6 $70,000 3YO & UP. Open. Handicap.
This edition of Punt to Win:
You Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.
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