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20/11/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 13th. November, 2010.

On this day the $350,000 Group 2 Sandown Classic was run over 2400 metres at Sandown Hillside horse racing track and won for the fourth year in a row by the Robert Hickmott trained 9YO gelding Zipping, ridden by Nicholas Hall, and the $350,000 3YO Group 2 Sandown Guineas was run over 1600 metres at Sandown Hillside horse racing track and won by the Chris Waller trained Pressday ridden by Nash Rawiller.

Sandown Hillside - Sandown Guineas and Sandown Classic Day: Track Heavy.

R7 $350,000 Group 2. Weight for Age. Sandown Classic.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Zipping
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Hickmott


Rosehill: Track Good R1-R4, Dead R5-R8.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Saramenha
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.24
Top fluctuation: $1.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Nathan Berry
Trainer: Gerald Ryan

R2 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 90. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Honest Lies
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.05
Jockey: Josh Adams
Trainer: John O'Shea
Winner: Tromso
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Chris Waller

R6 $70,000 3YO & UP. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Skytrain
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.85
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Geared Up
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.20
Jockey: Peter Robl
Trainer: Joseph Pride

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting first up horses
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The "Lay the Favourite" Trifecta horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: Sandown Classic & Guineas Day - 13/11/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: Cantala Stakes Day - 6/11/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: Victoria Derby Day - 30/10/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 2/11/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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