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20/11/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 30th. October, 2010.
On this day the $1,500,000 3YO Group 1 Victoria Derby, run over 2500 metres was held at Flemington and won by Lion Tamer which started at $13.00. The $1,000,000 Group 1 Weight for Age Mackinnon Stakes was run over 2000 metres and won by the $1.60 Bart Cummings trained good thing, So You Think.

Rosehill: Track Good.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Clapton
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $2.10
Jockey: Christian Reith
Trainer: Allan Denham
Winner: Saramenha
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Nathan Berry
Trainer: Gerald Ryan

R2 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Kontiki Park
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.15
Jockey: Peter Robl
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Stand To Gain
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Chris Waller


Morphettville: Track Dead.

R1 $40,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Motifs
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $2.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: John P. Thompson

R2 $32,000 Rating 86. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Generous Beau
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: David Balfour
Winner: Foxham
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Tony McEvoy

R4 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Tramuntana
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Jolly

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting first up horses
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The "Lay the Favourite" Trifecta horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: Sandown Classic & Guineas Day - 13/11/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: Cantala Stakes Day - 6/11/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: Victoria Derby Day - 30/10/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 2/11/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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