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20/11/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 6th. November, 2010.
On this day the $1,000,000 Group 1 Cantala Stakes (registered name), was run over 1600 metres at Flemington horse racing track and won by the Jeff Lynds trained Wall Street, ridden by Hugh Bowman. Wall Street firmed from $6.50 to start at $6.00 in the Flemington bookmakers' betting ring on track.

Flemington - Cantala Stakes Day: Track Dead.

R5 $750,000 Victoria Racing Club Stakes (registered name.) Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Black Caviar
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainer: Peter G. Moody


Randwick: Track Heavy.

R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Altier
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.50
Jockey: Nathan Berry
Trainer: Gregory Hickman
Winner: Mazzini
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Peter Wells
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson

R3 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Zampara
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Rod Quinn
Trainer: Matthew Smith

R4 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Rating 73. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Upon This Rock
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Blake Spriggs
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Magnolia Lane
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Marc Conners

R5 $70,000 3YO. Rating 73. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Zachary
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.00
Jockey: Tim Clark
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Bellissimo
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.40
Jockey: Jake Noonan
Trainer: Anthony Cummings

R6 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Ladys Angel
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.35
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Tim Clark
Trainer: Joseph Pride

R7 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 90. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Parthian
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Joshua Parr
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R8 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 85. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 3
Favourite: Title
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Jay Ford
Trainer: Joseph Pride

Betting favourites in small fields: Morphettville - 6/11/2010 - click here

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting first up horses
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The "Lay the Favourite" Trifecta horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: Sandown Classic & Guineas Day - 13/11/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: Cantala Stakes Day - 6/11/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: Victoria Derby Day - 30/10/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 2/11/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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