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22/4/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 15th. April.

Randwick - Australian Derby Day: Track Good

R4 $602,000 3YO and upward. Group 1 Weight for Age.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Equal Favourite: Snitzel
Result: third
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.40
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Equal Favourite: Virage De Fortune
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.70
Jockey: Greg Childs
Trainer: Bruce McLachlan
Winner: Red Oog
Starting price: $18.00
Top fluctuation: $18.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $19.30
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Joseph Pride


Here are the results from Saturday, 8th. April.

Moonee Valley: Track Dead

R2 $45,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Industrious
Result: first

Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Matt Pumpa
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: So Ready


Doomben: Track Good

R5 $75,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1110 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Any Suggestion
Result: first

Starting price: $2.05
Top fluctuation: $2.05
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Michael Cahill
Trainer: Les Kelly


Cheltenham: Track Dead

R1 $22,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: McFly
Result: first

Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: David Hayes

R2 $24,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Global Reign
Result: first

Starting price: $1.65
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G Moody

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to find value betting odds
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Value Winner horse racing betting system
Be a winning punter on Slow and Heavy tracks
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick Australian Derby Day & Caulfield
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 15/4/2006
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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