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24/4/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here is the result from Saturday, 3rd. April, 2010.

On this day the $3,500,000 Group 1 Golden Slipper Stakes was run for two year olds at Rosehill horse racing track over 1200 metres. As well, on a huge day of racing at Rosehill, the $2,250,000 Group 1 Weight for Age H. E. Tancred Stakes over 2400 metres, the $400,000 Group 1 Weight for Age George Ryder Stakes over 1500 metres, the $400,000 Group 1 3YO Fillies Storm Queen Stakes over 2000 metres and the $400,000 Group 1 3YO and up Fillies & Mares Queen of the Turf Stakes over 1500 metres were also run. (Registered names used.)

Oakbank: Track Dead

R5 $70,000 Listed. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Very Discreet
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Richard Jolly

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to select good betting races
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The True Favourite horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 17/4/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 10/4/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/4/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 17/4/2010 & 10/4/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/4/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 3/4/2010
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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