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24/4/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held at Caulfield horse racing track on Saturday, 17th. April, 2010.

Caulfield
Track: Good.
Rail: Out 4 metres.
Penetrometer: 5.19

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Flokkati
Days since last start: 125
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 2-5
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Taylor Lovelock-Wiggins
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R2 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Broken
Days since last start: 140
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 3-6
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jack Hill
Trainer: Darren Weir

R3 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2425 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Savarain
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 1-6
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.65
Top fluctuation: $1.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R4 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Bird Of Fire
Days since last start: 12
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 3-11
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jake Noonan
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R5 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Gibraltar Moon
Days since last start: 98
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 3-9
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Taylor Lovelock-Wiggins
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R6 $100,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Beltrois
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 3-10
Result this start: 13th.

Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Danny Brereton
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths

R7 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Nicastro
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 5-7
Result this start: 9th.

Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jake Noonan
Trainer: Jarrod McLean

R8 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Avionics
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-6
Result this start: 12th.

Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Danny Brereton
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths

Comments:
It was one of the worst days in many months for favourites punters with not one favourite winning. In R1, R2 and R5 the favourites, Flokkati, Broken and Gibraltar Moon were resuming from spells respectively of 125 days, 140 days and 98 days. Not one of these three favourites even managed to run a place. In R7 punters sent out Nicastro as the $4.00 favourite even though it finished fifth in a small field of seven three weeks earlier. On Saturday Nicastro finished ninth of 11. In R8 punters solidly backed the favourite Avionics from $3.60 into $3.10, obviously trying to "get out" and assuming that "one favourite must win today." They were wrong. Avionics finished last!

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to select good betting races
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The True Favourite horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 17/4/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 10/4/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/4/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 17/4/2010 & 10/4/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/4/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 3/4/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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