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24/4/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the Easter horse racing meeting held on Saturday, 3rd. April, 2010 at the Caulfield horse racing track.

Caulfield
Track: Good.
Rail: True Position.
Penetrometer: 5.19

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Noetic
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 3-6
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: James Winks
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R2 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Cross Street
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-8
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: James Winks
Trainer: David Hayes

R3 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Zantelagh
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-8
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R4 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Definitely Ready
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R5 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Marchelle Belle
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 7-11
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nathan Rose
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R6 $125,000 Victoria Handicap.
Group 3. Open.
Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Light Fantastic
Days since last start: 28
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 12-19
Result this start: 9th.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price

R7 $125,000 Easter Cup.
Group 3. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Kidnapped
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 8-15
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: James Winks
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R8 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Netra
Days since last start: 84
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-6
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Jarrod McLean

Comments:
Punters betting favourites had a losing meeting with only two winners in R3 and R4. Both these horses had their previous race two weeks earlier for a win and a second. What stood out were the favourites in R5, R6 and R7. They were all unplaced at their previous start this campaign and only Marchelle Belle managed to place on Saturday. In R8 Netra resumed after a spell of 84 days and starting at the odds of $3.00 was unplaced.

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to select good betting races
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The True Favourite horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 17/4/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 10/4/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/4/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 17/4/2010 & 10/4/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/4/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 3/4/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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