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24/4/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held at Flemington horse racing track on Saturday, 10th. April, 2010.

Flemington
Track: R1 Dead, R2-8 Good.
Rail: Out 3 metres.
Penetrometer: 4.83

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Eclair Mystic
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Jack Hill
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R2 $70,000 3YO. Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Perminsky
Days since last start: 9
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Currie
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths

R3 $75,000 3YO and UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Red Flair
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jordan Mallyon
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra

R4 $75,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Johanski
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-13
Result this start: dead heat 3rd.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brent Evans
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R5 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Instructor
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1700
Result last start: 4-9
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Hickmott

R6 $100,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Rundle
Days since last start: 11
Distance last start: 2100
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Hickmott

R7 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Grand Duels
Days since last start: 28
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 4-15
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Taylor Lovelock-Wiggins
Trainer: Byron Cozamanis

R8 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Rockpecker
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 13-14
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Sebastian Murphy
Trainer: Ken Fythe

Comments:
Punters backing favourites had a solid losing day, with only two favourites, Eclair Mystic $2.80 in R1 and Rundle $3.00 in R6, winning from the eight races. Both these favourites were last start winners. Three of the six losing favourites, Instructor, Grand Duels and Rockpecker in races 5, 7 and 8, were unplaced at their previous start. They were all unplaced again. Punters were so forgiving they sent out Rockpecker as $4.00 favourite in R8 after it finished second last in a field of 14 only a week earlier!

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to select good betting races
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The True Favourite horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 17/4/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 10/4/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/4/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 17/4/2010 & 10/4/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/4/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 3/4/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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