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24/4/2010 edition

How to Select Good Betting Races

Continued from previous page.

Why did the race caller describe the 2YO Fillies Open as a "good betting race?"

Nothing actually happened in the betting ring.
The opening prices of the 10 runners in the betting ring with their market percentages were:  
$3.00 (33.33), $4.00 (25), $4.00 (25), $6.50 (15.38), $7.50 (13.33),
$8.00 (12.5), $8.00 (12.5), $8.00 (12.5), $13.00 (7.69), $13.00 (7.69).
That totals 164.92%.

That sort of betting percentage is equivalent to betting eight dollars to win two on the toss of a coin!
Any wonder prices eased in the betting ring.

Only Ashley Kate stayed firm at her opening quote of $8.00.
Only two horses firmed at any stage in the betting ring:

Cossego
opened at $4.00, eased to $4.80 and firmed slightly to start at $4.50.
Office Hours opened at $13.00, eased to $15.00, had a little specking and started at $13.00.    

Based on the betting, there was no evidence whatsoever of all those owners and connections who "think they have a horse that gallops particularly well" deciding to "have a go," as the racecaller claimed.

Here are the starting prices of the 10 runners with their market percentages:
$3.50 (28.57), $4.50 (22.22),  $4.50 (22.22), $8.00 (12.5), $8.50 (11.76),
$9.00 (11.11), $10.00 (10), $10.00 (10), $13.00 (7.69), $15.00 (6.67) 
That totals 142.74%. 

That sort of betting percentage is equivalent to betting seven dollars to win three on the toss of a coin.

Combine both lack of disclosed form with very poor prices on offer and punters were on a hiding to nothing.

So why did the race caller say when "there's so much guessing going on and that's good" and also add that it is "pretty good thinking" to "have a go" under those circumstances? 
We have no idea. Did the race caller? Or was it nothing but idle chatter to fill in some time?

Well, what is a GOOD betting race?
Precisely the opposite of that 2YO Fillies race.

1.
It is a race where the odds can favour smart punters long term.

2. There is plenty of disclosed and current form.

3. There are also usually only a few horses with realistic winning chances.

4. That means the race is not a raffle.
 
5. Correctly sort out the main chances, get good odds about your key selections, stake them right and long term you should do well.  

This article is based on Punt to Win, 1st. December, 2000.

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to select good betting races
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The True Favourite horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 17/4/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 10/4/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/4/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 17/4/2010 & 10/4/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/4/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 3/4/2010
Punt to Win index


2009 Melbourne Cup Day
Winners
Best Bookmaker Win Odds
Best Tote Odds

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Strawberry Field 21.00 32.60 $116
Right Fong 13.70 17.00 $33
Majestic Music 9.80 13.00 $32
Common Interest 9.20 12.00 $28
She's Got Gears 10.00 12.60 $26
Flying Tessie 11.00 13.40 $24
Shocking 9.80 11.00 $12


 

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