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25/2/2012 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 18th. February, 2012.

On this day Australia's champion 5YO mare, Black Caviar, won her nineteenth consecutive race - the $750,000 Group 1 Weight for Age Ligtning Stakes over 1000 metres. Black Caviar won just seven days earlier over 1400 metres, so it was an amazing feat to back up one week later and drop back 400 metres in distance to 1000 metres and win. Black Caviar has yet to be beaten!!

Black Caviar started at $1.10 and was ridden by Luke Nolen and trained by Peter G. Moody.

Second, beaten by 1.75 lengths, was the second best sprinter in the world, 6YO gelding Hay List, who was second favourite at $12.00. Hay List was ridden by Glyn Schofield and trained by John McNair.

Warwick Farm
: Track Dead R1-R4, Good R5-R8.

R2 $100,000 2YO. Fillies. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Driefontein
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.55
Top fluctuation: $1.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R3 $100,000 2YO. Colts & Geldings. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Raceway
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.24
Top fluctuation: $1.35
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.10
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

This edition of Punt to Win:
Understanding horse racing value betting
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The In Form Race Fit horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 18/2/2012
Betting favourites in small fields: 11/2/2012 & 4/2/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 4/2/2012
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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