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25/2/2012 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here is the result for horse racing punters betting favourites in small horse racing fields on Saturday, 11th. February, 2012.

On this day Australia's champion 5YO mare, Black Caviar, won her eighteenth consecutive race - the $400,000 Group 1 Weight for Age C. F. Orr Stakes over 1400 metres. Black Caviar has never yet been beaten!!

Black Caviar started at $1.05 and was ridden by Luke Nolen and trained by Peter G. Moody.

Second, beaten by more than three lengths, was 4YO mare Southern Speed, the winner of the 2011 Caulfield Cup. Southern Speed, which was second favourite at $16.00, was ridden by Craig Williams and trained by Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas.

Caulfield: C. F. Orr Stakes Day - Track Dead.

R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Spirit Song
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.85
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: Aaron Purcell

R2 $125,000 2YO Colts & Geldings. Blue Diamond Prelude. Group 3. Set weights.
Distance: 1110 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Rusambo
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.50
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: General Rippa
Starting price: $17.00
Top fluctuation: $17.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $12.20
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: David Hayes


Eagle Farm: Track Dead.

R1 $45,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2136 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Honourable Aussie
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Timothy Bell
Trainer: John P. Thompson
Winner: Winmara
Starting price: $18.00
Top fluctuation: $18.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $21.90
Jockey: Scott Galloway
Trainer: Frank Phillips


Here is the result for horse racing punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 4th. February, 2012.

Caulfield: Track Dead R1 - R3, Good R4 - R8.

R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Star Of Giselle
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.00
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra
Winner: Johannapine
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Mark Webb

This edition of Punt to Win:
Understanding horse racing value betting
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The In Form Race Fit horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 18/2/2012
Betting favourites in small fields: 11/2/2012 & 4/2/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 4/2/2012
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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