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26/8/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 19th. August.

Rosehill: Track Good

R1 $55,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Sugarbomb
Result: first

Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John O'Shea

Doomben: Track Good

R7 $100,000 Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Starlactic
Result: fourth
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
Jockey: Ric McMahon
Trainer: Wayne S Lawson
Winner: Anca
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: Stephen Marsh

Morphettville: Track Good

R3 $30,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2028 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Roll Me
Result: first

Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.25
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Brady Cross
Trainer: Paul Preusker

This edition of Punt to Win:
Following these horse racing media tipsters
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The High Strike Rate horse racing place betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill & Caulfield
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 19/8/2006
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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