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27/6/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 13th. June, 2009.

Rosehill: Track Slow

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Hewentwhoosh
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $3.80
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Brett Thompson
Winner: King Sabeel
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.20
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson

R2 $70,000 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Fusakeo
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.00
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Apparitions
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.00
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Clarry Conners


Sandown Hillside: Track Heavy

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: The Fugitive
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Perikon
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.80
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Ricky Maund

R4 $100,000 Hurdle. Handicap.
Distance: 3400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Pentiffic
Result: Lost jockey
Starting price: $3.30
Jockey: Craig Durden
Trainer: Fran Houlahan & Brian Johnston
Winner: Hooker Road
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.30
Jockey: Brad McLean
Trainer: Colin & Cindy Alderson


Morphettville: Track Slow

R1 $22,000 Hurdle. Handicap.
Distance: 3200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Tradesman's Choice
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.35
Jockey: Adrian Lechmere
Trainer: Gordon Richards
Winner: Robeeca
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $12.60
Jockey: Martin Kelly
Trainer: Grant Young

R3 $25,500 4YO and upward. Mares. Rst94. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Get Set
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: Dollops
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: David Jolly

R6 $25,500 Rst86. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Lightly Spiced
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.40
Jockey: Tillie Neve
Trainer: Leon Macdonald
Winner: Friday Nights
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.80
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Neville Voigt

There were no horse races with fields of seven or less horses on Saturday, 6th. June, 2009.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Making money betting wide barrier horses
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 20/6/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 13/6/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 6/6/2009
The New Jockey horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/6/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/6/2009 & 6/6/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 6/6/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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