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27/6/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Sandown Hillside, Saturday, 13th. June, 2009.

Sandown Hillside
Track: Heavy
Rail: True position
Penetrometer: 6.18

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: The Fugitive
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1050
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes

R2 $70,000 4YO and upward. Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Justsay Sumthink
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-6
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Peter Healey

R3 $100,000 Steeple. Handicap.
Distance: 3900 metres
Number of runners: 11
Equal Favourite: Mazzacano
Last start: 30th. June, 2007
Distance last start: 3900
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Gavin Bedggood
Trainer: Robbie Laing
Equal Favourite: Rude 'N' Abrupt
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 2400
Result last start: 3-10
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven Pateman
Trainer: Ciaron Maher

R4 $100,000 Hurdle. Handicap.
Distance: 3400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Pentiffic
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 3300
Result last start: 3-7
Result this start: Lost rider

Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Durden
Trainer: Fran Houlahan & Brian Johnston

R5 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Trustus
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 3-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Fran Houlahan & Brian Johnston

R6 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Davcon
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Heath Conners

R7 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Spare A Dime
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 2400
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 2nd.

Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Mark Pegus
Trainer: Rick Hore-Lacy

R8 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: De Ja View
Days since last start: 196
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 8-11
Result this start: 11th.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price

Comments:
There was an amazing training feat in R3 when Mazzacano won the Australian Steeple first up after a break of nearly two years from competitive racing. But as per normal, in R8 it was not surprising to see the favourite miss out when resuming after a spell of 196 days. Horses sent out as favourites after a spell of 100 days or longer have a very poor winning strike rate in Melbourne's main race meeting on Saturdays.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Making money betting wide barrier horses
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 20/6/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 13/6/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 6/6/2009
The New Jockey horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/6/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/6/2009 & 6/6/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 6/6/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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