Punt to Win

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29/7/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 15th. July.

Randwick: Track Heavy

R1 $55,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Tzu Hsi
Result: first

Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes

R7 $55,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Artistique
Result: second
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.50
Jockey: Tim Clark
Trainer: John O'Shea
Winner: Double D'Amour
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.40
Jockey: Zac Purton
Trainer: Albert Stapleford

Morphettville: Track Dead

R3 $30,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Mt Billy
Result: first

Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Jeremy Gask

This edition of Punt to Win:
"I guess we just have to take these poor odds!" Do we?
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Wide open betting races and "value"
Get those betting odds
The Surprise First Up Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/7/2006
Betting favourites in small fields: 15/7/2006
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: 22/7/2006 - Rosehill & Caulfield
Betting tips from the track: 15/7/2006 - Randwick & Moonee Valley
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 15/7/2006
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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