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30/4/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, April 23.

Randwick: Track Dead

R2 $55,000 3YO. Class 6.
Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Canny Princess
Result: second
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $4.80
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Wonderer
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctation: $12.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.10
Jockey: Jay Ford
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

Caulfield: Track Good

R1 $50,000 2YO. Open.
Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: The Boot
Result: first
Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Nicholas Ryan
Trainer: Lee Freedman

Doomben: Track Slow

R6 $25,000 Rs2ly.
Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: five
Equal Favourite: Weaishe
Result: second
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
Jockey: Michael Cahill
Trainer: Kelly Schweida
Equal Favourite: Karamazou
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: Alan Bailey
Winner: Sovereign Express
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Gavin McKeon
Trainer: John Wallace

Cheltenham: Track Good

R1 $25,000 2YO Colts and Geldings. Open. Set weights.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Davout
Result: first
Starting price: $1.30
Top fluctuation: $1.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Tony McEvoy

There were no fields of seven or less runners on Saturday, 16th. April.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Identifying false favourites
Converting strike rates to betting odds
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track: Randwick, Rosehill and Flemington
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 16/4/2005
Punt to Win index


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It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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