30/4/2005 edition

Strike Rates to Betting Odds

With horse racing there are always plenty of simple betting and selection methods suggested to punters or worked out by punters. The big problem is they are most likely flawed and will not work.

Many years ago, as part of an advertising promotion, a racing publication gave away for free an easy method to work out the minimum odds you need to back your selection.

It was simply a cardboard wheel with an arrow which you turned to the horse's strike rate. It converted the strike rate to odds. So if the horse's winning strike rate was 50% the odds you needed were $2.00. If the horse's winning strike rate was 25% the odds you needed were $4.00 and so on. If the horse's winning strike rate was 10% the odds you needed were $10.00 and so on.

(Just divide 100 by the strike rate percentage to get your dollar odds.)

Now imagine four horses that each have a 50% winning strike rate in the same race. All you need is $2.00 for each of them. Of course that is nonsense.

As Filante succintly posted in our forum "Why worry about prices - just back every horse with a 100% strike rate - always getting value because they're all certainties. There are two at Randwick in just the first race, so both of them will win."

Put simply - adjusting strike rates to odds is an absolute waste of time.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Identifying false favourites
Converting strike rates to betting odds
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track: Randwick, Rosehill and Flemington
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 16/4/2005
Punt to Win index

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