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31/8/2013 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about horse racing favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring horse racing favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday horse races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the horse racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most horse races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 17th. August, 2013.

Caulfield: Track Good.

R2 $80,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Bit Of Hell
Result: 7th.
Starting price: $4.00
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Mick Price
Winner: Pakal
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.70
Jockey: Patrick Moloney
Trainer: Mick Price

Doomben: Track Good.

R1 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1630 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Double Impact
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.90
Jockey: Anthony Allen
Trainer: Jackie Crompton
Winner: Grey Assignment
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Aidan Holt
Trainer: Kelso Wood

R3 $50,000 Rating 95. Handicap.
Distance: 2100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Mukaddamah Son
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.25
Jockey: Damian Browne
Trainer: Gary Duncan
Winner: Escoffier
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: Barry Baldwin

This edition of Punt to Win:
Trifecta horse racing wagering and betting tips
The Free New Jockey horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/8/2013

Betting favourites in small fields: 17/8/2013
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/8/2013
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 10/8/2013
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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