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31/8/2013 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about horse racing favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring horse racing favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday horse races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the horse racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most horse races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the result for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 10th. August, 2013.

Randwick: Track Slow.

R1 $85,000 3YO. Fillies. Rating 64. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Streaking Comet
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.87 (after a 15 cents in the dollar win deduction due to a scratching at the barrier.)
Top fluctuation: $1.87
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Peter Robl
Trainer: Bart & James Cummings

R2 $85,000 3YO & UP. Rating 84. Handicap.
Distance: 2600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Lucripetous
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Chris Waller

R3 $85,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Rating 85. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Lilliburlero
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: Jason Collett
Trainer: David Payne
Winner: Hidden Kisses
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.70
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Chris Waller

R4 $85,000 3YO & UP. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Mount Nebo
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Serg Lisnyy
Trainer: Allan Denham
Winner: Field Marshall
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Trainer: Chris Waller

R5 $125,000 Missile Stakes. 3YO & UP. Group 3. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Rain Affair
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.30
Top fluctuation: $1.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Joseph Pride


Eagle Farm: Track Good.

R1 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Adebisi
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.10
Jockey: Michael Cahill
Trainer: Desleigh Forster
Winner: Funtantes
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.30
Jockey: Janette K. Johnson
Trainer: Robert Heathcote

This edition of Punt to Win:
Trifecta horse racing wagering and betting tips
The Free New Jockey horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/8/2013

Betting favourites in small fields: 17/8/2013
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/8/2013
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 10/8/2013
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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